2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 95

Friday night in St. Louis, an all-too-familiar scenario played out. The Cubs built a lead only to have the bullpen falter in the ninth inning. There was even a side order of a pitcher leaving with an injury. We’ve seen this scenario too many times this year.

But wait. This time the lead heading into the ninth inning was five runs and not one. So many of those blown saves earlier this year were with one-run leads. Had this one been a one run lead, it’s not hard to imagine the Cubs might have lost this one too. The whole inning clearly plays out differently if the Cardinals are trying to plate one, maybe two, runs rather than five, maybe six. At that, they managed to get the tying run to the plate.

This time, because the lead was five, the only casualty of that posthumous rally by the Cardinals was that the Cubs historical scoreless streak came to an end. At 32 innings, that was the longest road scoreless streak since the championship 1908 Cubs. It would have been nice to notch that 33rd inning and rolled into today’s double header with that and all the momentum of it in play. Sadly, it wasn’t meant to be.

The Cubs win their fifth straight, matching their season high achieved March 31 to April 5 with wins over the Rangers, Rockies and Dodgers. So there were two signature wins on the outsides of that streak, but a terrible Rockies team got swept in the middle. This was five wins against opponents who have legitimate playoff aspirations. Next goal? Their last streak of six or more was an eight-game winning streak last July 21 to 29 that included six wins against these Cardinals, sandwiched around two against the White Sox.

If the Cubs lost all three of the remaining games in St. Louis, this would still actually be a very successful trip with four wins against two very strong opponents, one the team owning the best record in baseball and the other red hot. But obviously the lens changes over time. You’d have to grudgingly take four before the trip started. Now, with four wins to start the trip you have to feel a real lost opportunity if they can’t win at least one more.

By now you’ve heard me say it before. These are the times when you have to get greedy. Five wins on this trip will be a terrific outcome. But you’ve already banked four. You’re playing your best baseball of the year. You can manage these games with an eye on four off days after the series. Get greedy. Get two more wins in St. Louis. Come home at 48-50. Spend an All-Star break thinking about how if you hadn’t blown 17 saves this team would be squarely in the playoff picture.

On the other hand, don’t kill yourself over it. You could have won 60+ games before the break. But also, there are only a handful of teams that can say that they could have won 60+ games before the break. It has to be two sided, just like it was on Friday night. The starting pitching is doing its job. So the offense has to be more consistent. One run needs to be two. Two needs to be three and so on. Squeeze another run or two out here and there.

Then the bullpen has got to find ways to close the door. The last three, six, nine outs of the game can be the hardest to record. You’ve found some intriguing youth and the injured veterans appear to be closing in on second half returns. If Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather could get right, it takes a lot of pressure off of Mark Leiter Jr. and Hector Neris. That has the potential to be a pretty good back four.

One can dream that maybe Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks get healthy before the end of the season and give you two more intriguing arms out of the pen late this season before you consider if their arms are more valuable out of the pen or the rotation in 2025 and beyond.

Get greedy. Get at least one today and keep this thing moving forward. Let the future wait for at least another day.

Three stars.

1. Kyle Hendricks. He’s dominated the Cardinals so many times in his career. Friday night was not his most dominating turn against them. But five hits, one walks and no runs over seven innings is awfully good. This was his first start of seven or more innings with no runs allowed since his start in San Francisco last June where he flirted with a no-hitter. It was only his fifth start of seven innings or more over the last two years.
2. Nico Hoerner had an interesting night. He had two hits and two runs batted in. With no overlap. He had two singles, an RBI-ground out and a sacrifice fly. Twice he batted with a runner on third and less than two outs and both times he got the run home. Neither came by way of a rally extending hit, but he got the job done twice.
3. A lot of bats contributed to this one, but I’m going to tip the cap to Hector Neris. Usually when I nod to a reliever its either a shutdown inning or a multi-inning one. It’s certainly not usually a walk among three batters faced. He entered with two on and a four-run lead in the ninth inning. Had the Cubs melted down that lead, all of the good that is this week would have washed away in a hurry. I see all the things you do. There are warning lights all over his dashboard. But also 13 saves and seven wins. Wins are a terrible measure for a reliever. But I can eyeball his numbers and say that he’s been involved in at least 20 of the team’s wins. It hasn’t been pretty and isn’t likely to continue without improvements. Also, this team would almost certainly be in much worse shape without him.

Game 95, July 12: Cubs 5, Cardinals 1 (46-49)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Kyle Hendricks (.409). 7 IP, 24 batters 5 H, BB, 3 K (W 2-7)
• Hero: Dansby Swanson (.085). 2-4, RBI, R
• Sidekick: Miguel Amaya (.059). 2-3, SH

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.129). 0-5
• Goat: Christopher Morel (-.069). 1-4, R
• Kid: Hunter Bigge (-.034). ⅓ IP, 4 batters, H, 2 BB, R

WPA Play of the Game: In the fifth inning, the Cubs were up two but the Cardinals had a runner on first with no outs and Nolan Arenado at the plate and Kyle Hendricks induced a double-play grounder. (.105)

*Cardinals Play of the Game: Michael Busch batted with runners on first and second with one out in the fifth with the Cubs up two. Sonny Gray got a double-play grounder to end the inning. (.066)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Justin Steele received 214 of 270 votes with Seiya Suzuki second at 46.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +14.5
• Michael Busch/Ben Brown +11
• Seiya Suzuki +10.5
• Porter Hodge/Ian Happ +10
• Tomas Nido -8
• Adbert Alzolay/Miguel Amaya -10
• Kyle Hendricks -12
• Christopher Morel -17.5

*Hendricks moves away from the cellar, Swanson out of the bottom five (-6), Amaya up to third to last. Busch drops into a tie for second, Morel falls further into the cellar, Bigge’s first appearance finds him at -1.

Bigge is the 44th Cub to appear in H&G this season. In 2023, there were 45 total. This team will blow past that one. 2022 saw 59 of them. I think that one is safe. 2021 saw 65. I think that one is forever safe.

Up Next: Two games with the Cardinals. Hayden Wesneski (3-5, 3.67) against Lance Lynn (4-4, 4.48) in the day game. In the nightcap it’ll be Javier Assad (4-3, 3.04) against Kyle Gibson (7-3, 3.96). It all starts with Wesneski. Assad doesn’t often work more than five and is coming off of the injured list, It would be terrific if Hayden could work into the sixth.

Nothing easy about this day. But there wasn’t anything easy in Baltimore either.